If you love the rattle of hooves and the thrill of a tight finish, you have probably wondered how to turn all that noise into a single clear signal. That is the promise of Andy Holding speed figures. They translate race times into a simple language that punters can use across different tracks, trips, and conditions.
In other words, they help you see what the clock really said after you strip away quirks of ground, draw, pace shape, and even rail moves. This article gives you a practical walk through of what they are, how they are built, and how to use them with confidence on both Flat and Jumps cards.
What a Speed Figure Actually Measures
A speed figure is a number that describes how fast a horse truly ran once you adjust for the many things that can distort a raw time. A raw time is useful in isolation, but it cannot speak across distances and courses. Andy Holding speed figures aim to create a common scale. The goal is comparability. One number, many contexts.
Why do these specific figures matter in the British and Irish scene. First, they are made for the reality of local racing where going descriptions shift by the hour and pace can turn tactical. Second, the figures are used by a tipster who puts his views in public every day. That makes the figures more than a classroom exercise. They are part of a daily decision tool kit where opinions meet prices.
The Building Blocks Behind the Numbers
To understand the output, start with three inputs.
Standard time. Every course and distance has a notional par time for competent horses under typical conditions. This gives the baseline.
Going allowance. The ground can run slow or fast. A deep surface drags down times, a quick surface lifts them. The allowance tries to quantify that influence so a slow day at Chepstow and a quick day at Kempton can talk to each other.
Sectionals. Splits within the race tell you where the heat lived. A race can look slow overall yet contain a vicious mid race squeeze. Another can look fast on paper but be the product of an early burn that set the table for closers. Sectionals supply the texture that a final time lacks.
From these, a figure emerges that is meant to be portable. It is never perfect. No figure can know how much a horse needed the run or how a rider measured the effort. But as a way to clean the signal, this mix of baseline, allowance, and sectional insight is the core of the method.
How to Read an Andy Holding Sheet Without Getting Lost
Think of the sheet as a conversation between three columns of thought.
First, the achieved figure for the day. That is the headline. It tells you where the run sits on the scale relative to other efforts.
Second, context notes that describe the race shape. Was it a steady gallop that turned into a dash, or an honest pace from flag to line. If you see a strong final figure married to a race that unfolded evenly, you can expect more repeatability. If you see a fancy number that came from a messy stop and start affair, you must treat it with more caution.
Third, recent form cross checks. A single pop can be noise. Two or three lines under similar conditions begin to sing a tune. A sheet that lets you compare the last three runs at similar trip and going will save you from chasing one off efforts.
Using Speed Figures on the Flat
Flat racing magnifies small differences. A small headwind, a slightly quicker strip of ground, a draw that nudges a jockey toward the hot lane, all can tilt the table. The figure gives you the first pass filter.
Look for sustained speed. Horses who can run efficient even fractions in truly run races tend to reproduce their number when asked again. When a horse posts a sharp figure that came from an easy sit behind a slow early pace, be wary. That number is less likely to travel to a race that is honest from the gate.
Weights and pace matter here as well. If a sprinter carried a big burden to a lofty figure while racing three wide into the wind and still finished off, treat that as a proper piece of form. If another posted a similar number when everything set up for a late swoop, downgrade it slightly unless you expect the same script today.
Using Speed Figures over Jumps
Jump racing stretches time and amplifies the effect of stamina, rhythm, and a single error. A fall or a bad peck at a fence corrupts times. Ground swings are often larger. Yet the figures still guide you.
Focus on proven stamina at pace. A handicap chase run at a true clip will yield figures that travel to the next honest event. Novice races that stop and start can produce attractive final numbers that are not repeatable unless the same shape returns. When you see a chaser who records a strong figure and closes out the final section without shortening stride, that is a profile you can trust.
Sectionals are even more valuable here. Mid race squeezes up a hill or into a headwind can drain finishers while flattering those who rode cold early. The figure plus the sectional story will tell you whether the big number came from grit that can be repeated or from circumstance that cannot.
A Step by Step Workflow for a Busy Saturday
One. Pre screen the card by last three figures at or near today distance. This trims the field to a workable watch list.
Two. Label the likely race shape. Even gallop, stop and start, or burn up. Use pace maps and notes from similar races at the course to anchor the guess.
Three. Match figures to conditions. Give extra credit for horses whose best numbers came at the same trip and on going that mirrors the forecast. Be ruthless with horses who have not shown the figure on today type of ground.
Four. Cross reference with another credible set of numbers or with clear trip notes. When your preferred figure is hot but the wider market is cool, you may be looking at a price error. When your figure is cool but the market is hot, dig for reasons such as a yard in form or a likely pace edge.
Five. Decide your acceptable price before you walk to the window. Value can vanish fast on popular selections. Your job is to protect edge with discipline.
Common Traps and How to Dodge Them
The first trap is to treat every big number as equal. A big figure on a super quick strip is not the same as a big figure on a laboring surface into a headwind. Adjust in your head before you reach for the wallet.
The second trap is to ignore the horse as an athlete. A lightly raced type returning from a layoff may step forward even if the last figure was plain. A seasoned handicapper who just posted a personal best may bounce next time. Figures are snapshots, not prophecies.
The third trap is to stick to one source as if it were holy writ. Different scales make different choices about pace and weight. If two respected views disagree, let pace and trip decide the tie. Look again at how the race unfolded and ask which philosophy fits that story.
The fourth trap is to fall in love with a single line. Cluster your faith. Two or three runs that point in the same direction under similar conditions are where the edge lives.
Building a Shortlist with Recent, Relevant, Repeatable
This simple mantra keeps you honest. Recent means the horse has shown the level within a time frame that suggests current fitness. Relevant means the conditions today are close to those that produced the number. Repeatable means the number came from a race shape that is likely to occur again. If a horse ticks all three boxes, keep it. If it fails two, move on. This triage lets you spend more time on prices and less time on wishful stories.
What About Other Rating Systems
There are many ways to write a number on a run. Some systems place more weight on pace, others adjust for weight more aggressively, others give extra credit for fast finishes, others stress final time above all. The right question is not which brand is best in the abstract. The right question is which method best explains how the race was run and how today is likely to be run. Use Andy Holding speed figures as your spine, then let other angles raise flags where you should dig deeper.
Bankroll, Mindset, and Responsible Play
No figure is a guarantee. Even the best numbers carry doubt, because horses are living creatures and races are living events. Protect yourself with a staking plan that respects variance. Think in terms of long series rather than single bets. Record your decisions. When you win, ask whether your edge came from your process or from luck. When you lose, ask the same question. The clock is your ally, but only if you remain humble before it.
Conclusion
Andy Holding speed figures give you a disciplined way to hear the truth in a race time. They reduce complex variables into a language you can use at a glance, yet they still invite careful thought about pace, ground, sectionals, and price. Use them to build shortlists, to separate repeatable efforts from flattering mirages, and to keep your focus on value rather than on narrative.
Treat the figures as a compass, not a destination. Combine the number with clear race shape reads, recent and relevant context, and firm price discipline, and you will place yourself on the right side of many tight calls. The clock does not whisper secrets to those who chase noise. It rewards punters who listen carefully, compare like with like, and demand a fair price for a fair chance.